Forest Carbon Offsets: A New Approach
In an October 30, 2023 press release, the University of Cambridge (UK) announced the publication of an article in the journal Nature Climate Change of research by the Cambridge Centre for Carbon Credits. The University states that “Our new approach has the potential to address market concerns around nature-based solutions to carbon offsetting.” This is important because “Current valuation methods for forest conservation projects have come under heavy scrutiny, leading to a crisis of confidence in carbon markets. Measuring the value of carbon storage is not easy. Recent research revealed that as little as 6% of carbon credits from voluntary REDD+ schemes result in preserved forests.” Moreover, “the length of time these forests are preserved is critical to the climate benefits achieved.”
“Our new approach has the potential to address market concerns around nature-based solutions to carbon offsetting.”
Srinivasan Keshav, Robert Sansom Professor of Computer Science at Cambridge
Below is the author abstract of the article: Balmford, A et al.: ‘Realising the social value of impermanent carbon credits.’ Nature Climate Change, October 2023. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01815-0.
Abstract: Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their long-term impacts. Here we develop a flexible framework for estimating the net social benefit of impermanent nature-based interventions that integrates three substantial advances: (1) conceptualizing the permanence of a project’s impact as its additionality over time; (2) risk-averse estimation of the social cost of future reversals of carbon gains; and (3) post-credit monitoring to correct errors in deliberately pessimistic release forecasts. Our framework generates incentives for safeguarding already credited carbon while enabling would-be investors to make like-for-like comparisons of diverse carbon projects. Preliminary analyses suggest nature-derived credits may be competitively priced even after adjusting for impermanence.
Access to the full article is not free. To read it one must belong to an institution with a subscription to Springer Nature, subscribe yourself, or pay for a PDF of articles of interest. A personal subscription appears worthwhile if one has a strong interest in climate change research. Many articles are about forests.
Author:
Thomas Geary
Tilghman, Maryland, USA
Contact: ThomasGeary@hotmail.com
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